Hawaii 2040: What We Learned About Climate Change
The ambitious reporting project found myriad reasons for the public to be pessimistic about the effects of a warming planet on the islands. But also reasons for hope.
In January, Civil Beat took a deep dive into climate change with the launch of a yearlong project called Hawaii 2040.
We chose 2040 because that’s the year that the world’s top scientists have identified as the turning point for the planet — and for ourselves. To ward off the worst effects of climate change, scientists say we must make massive shifts in our behavior to prevent the planet from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2040.
So we set out to learn more about how climate change has already affected Hawaii and what the future holds. Who is doing something about it? Who is standing in the way? And what’s really at risk here?
It was quite a year. Depressing at times, uplifting at others, but always eye opening.
The project took us to communities around Oahu, Maui, Kauai and the Big Island. We learned about sea level rise, wildfires, coral bleaching, extinction, disease, watersheds and more.
We drove up Mauna Loa to where the foundation of modern climate research is happening. We talked to scientists who are measuring the ever-increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the air. (And then we planted 100 trees on the west side of Oahu to offset some of our own emissions.)
We hiked in remote forests on the side of Haleakala in search of native forest birds that could go extinct within the next decade. Warmer temperatures are allowing disease-carrying mosquitoes to reach the birds’ last refuge in higher altitudes.
And we looked below the surface at sick and dying corals, bleached white by an ocean that’s warming up too fast for them to adapt. That threatens our own coastal security, as the reefs act like natural barriers to diffuse the energy of major storms.
We talked to a retired teacher and others whose homes are one storm away from sliding into the sea. They are worried about where they should live but aren’t finding any answers from the state or county leaders who have dragged their feet when it comes to developing a managed retreat plan.
And we interviewed their neighbors who are having a harder time making it to town because, with increasing frequency, high tides and heavy rains are shutting down the only road that connects them with the rest of the island.
It was a year of learning about how climate change is as much an economic issue as it is environmental. Three feet of sea level rise is estimated to cause more than $20 billion in damage to coastal businesses, roads and land. That doesn’t include the compounding effect on tourism and other industries that drive the state’s economy.
Dozens of readers told us about the changes they are seeing in their own backyards.
Doorae Shin, a 26-year-old from Manoa, said her generation is living in fear of the world it inherited. She is bracing for a major hurricane and more flooding. In the meantime, she is part of a growing movement for plant-based living and vegan food choices to minimize her carbon footprint.
As a coral reef scientist, Mark Hixon of Honolulu said he is appalled at how unprepared Hawaii is for forthcoming massive coral bleaching events. His focus is on saving the uhu, a parrotfish whose feeding habits make reefs more resilient.
Edward Matukawa of Kapaa, Kauai, said the unprecedented flooding in April 2018 impacted his family’s rental property in Hanalei. He’s worried about what he and other property owners should do in light of rising seas and stronger storms.
Stacy Crivello of Molokai said climate change primarily affects her by the loss of highway access and beaches.
Guy Ward told us how his macadamia nut orchard near Laupahoehoe on Hawaii island received 292 inches of rain last year — roughly double the normal amount he observes there. He said it may be a weather anomaly but he fears it’s linked to a warming ocean.
We’re continuing to ask readers what they are seeing, hearing, feeling about climate change. Civil Beat’s Claire Caulfield is fielding your questions and tracking down answers for her podcast, “Are We Doomed? And Other Burning Environmental Questions.”
Looking to 2020, I’ll be serving on a panel in January at the second annual Hawaii Climate Conference to help scientists work with the media so neither side is a bottleneck in getting timely information out to the public about climate change.
We’ll also be examining watersheds and how climate change may affect our drinking water supply.
The public is engaged in this issue, despite the preponderance of doom and gloom — though the pessimism is warranted.
National and international reports have only grown more dire with each installment. Policymakers and elected officials have set bold goals — 100% renewable energy, for instance — but have been slow to respond to a climate crisis that is coming faster than expected.
There are reasons for optimism though. The public’s heightened attention, testimony and activism have pushed climate change up the priority ladder for Hawaii’s leaders. It’s becoming a campaign issue — and the ballot box is where citizens can speak loudest.
Hawaii also has an incredible trust of brainpower and people committed to fighting arguably the greatest threat the islands have ever seen.
And in many cases, solutions don’t involve reinventing the wheel. There are indigenous answers and western approaches that community members are utilizing to solve these challenging problems — often in tandem.
Noelani Puniwai, a professor at the University of Hawaii’s Kamakakuokalani Center for Hawaiian Studies, summed it up well.
“We can’t talk about things in our silos,” she said. “We all have to talk about things as a community.”
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About the Author
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Nathan Eagle is the deputy editor for Civil Beat. You can reach him by email at neagle@civilbeat.org or follow him on Twitter at @nathaneagle, Facebook here and Instagram here.
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More Stories In This Special Report
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Part 1
Hawaii 2040: Climate Change Is Already Here. And We’re Running Out Of Time
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Part 2
Fight Against Climate Change Is ‘An All-Out, All-In War’
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Part 3
Fighting Climate Change Will Cost The State Millions
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Part 4
Massive Flood Risks Don’t Deter Kauai Homeowners From Rebuilding
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Part 5
We Have To Move Our Homes And Businesses Away From The Shoreline. But How?
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Part 6
Developing An Action Plan For Oahu: ‘The Climate Is Not Waiting For Us’
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Part 7
Should Hawaii Tax Carbon Emissions To Combat Climate Change?
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Part 8
These Rare Seabirds Are Having Babies On Oahu’s North Shore
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Part 9
Study: Moving Ourselves Away From The Shoreline Is Hard But Doable
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Part 10
Losing A Beachfront Home Isn’t Just A Rich Person’s Problem
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Part 11
Many Climate Change Bills Are Still Alive, Including A Carbon Tax
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Part 12
Neutralizing Our Carbon Footprint, One Tree At A Time
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Part 13
Buyer Beware: Oceanfront Homes Keep Going Up Despite Rising Seas
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Part 14
Hawaii Lawmakers Have Largely Dropped The Ball On Slowing Climate Change
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Part 15
VIDEO: What Is A Carbon Tax?
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Part 16
Dozens Of Climate Change Bills Went Down The Political Drain This Session
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Part 17
Podcast: Our Journey To The Last Wild Place
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Part 18
‘We’re Not Scared’: Hawaii Confronts Next Wave Of Climate Change
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Part 19
This Rare Island Waterbird Is Becoming Citified
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Part 20
Climate Change Is Making Hawaii’s Beaches More Dangerous
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Part 21
Trump Weakens Protections For Hawaii’s Imperiled Plants And Animals
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Part 22
Hawaii Is Losing As Much Of Its Land To Wildfires As Any Other State
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Part 23
Air Travel’s Carbon Footprint Takes A Big Environmental Toll In Hawaii
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Part 24
How Climate Change Will Affect Hawaii’s Favorite Fish
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Part 25
We’re Ramping Up Our Climate Coverage. Here’s Why
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Part 26
Will Hawaii Lead The Renewables Revolution?
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Part 27
Bans, Trade-Ins and Take-Homes: Ideas For Reducing Food Packaging in Hawaii
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Part 28
With Sea Level Rise, The Fate of Hawaii’s Most Vulnerable Roads Is Uncertain
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Part 29
Why The Growing Demand For AC Threatens Hawaii’s Renewable Energy Goals
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Part 30
Is This The New Normal? Hawaii Wrestles With Record Heat
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Part 31
Report: Climate Change Is Hurting Oceans — And Us — More Than Expected
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Part 32
Record Heat Thrusts Hawaii Corals Into ‘New Era’ Of Bleaching
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Part 33
Fish Poop: Our Secret Weapon Against Beach Erosion
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Part 34
Why Hawaii Still Has So Few Electric Cars
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Part 35
Hawaii’s Push To Plant Millions Of Trees
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Part 36
Conflicts, Antitrust Questions Raised Regarding Maui Solar Farm
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Part 37
Honolulu’s First ‘Climathon’ Tackles The Challenges Of Green Tourism
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Part 38
Hawaii Gas Faces Uncertain Future In State’s Renewable Energy Push
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Part 39
Fighting To Save This Rare Maui Forest Bird From Extinction
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Part 40
Why Gonzo Artist Ralph Steadman Drew The Endangered Kiwikiu For Us
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Part 41
My Slog To Find Rare Birds In A Remote Maui Rainforest
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Part 42
How Will Climate Change Affect Surfing In Hawaii?
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Part 43
How A Doctor And A Reverend On Oahu Became Climate Warriors
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Part 44
Poll: Oahu Voters Want Action On Climate Change
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Part 45
They’ve Watched Our Climate Changing For Decades From High Atop Mauna Loa
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Part 46
How The Gas Company Plans To Fight A Bill Banning Gas Water Heaters
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Part 47
Deadly Mosquitoes Are Killing Off Hawaii’s Rare Forest Birds
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Part 48
Assessing Hawaii’s Zika Risk And Avoiding Carbon Offset Scams
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Part 49
Hawaii 2040: What We Learned About Climate Change
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Part 50
Six Feet Above: Where To Draw The Line On Sea Level Rise
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Part 51
The Future For Fishing: Managing A Lucrative Resource In The Face Of Climate Change
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Part 52
How Do You Talk To People About Climate Change Without Freaking Them Out?
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Part 53
Maui Is No Longer Safe For Hawaii’s Endangered Birds, Biologists Say
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Part 54
Climate Change Threatens To Worsen Health Disparities In Hawaii